Why do these large financial institutions with hundreds of billions on their books fail out of the blue? What role do central banks play in these dramatic failures? How can the global financial system be reformed to be more resilient, and what path should South Africa take?

In a world where banks are perceived as unshakeable fortresses, there is a worrying truth that lies just beneath the surface: banks are far more fragile and fail more frequently than we choose to believe.

In the US alone, more than 560 banks have failed since the turn of the century. In South Africa, the collapse of Saambou in 2002 sparked the A2 Banking Crisis, which saw half the country’s banks deregistered in the aftermath. In 2023, the high-profile failures of Silicon Valley Bank, First Republic Bank, Signature Bank and Credit Suisse dominated global headlines and set off waves of panic across the international banking landscape.

We live in a world in which financial markets have become completely decoupled from the real economy…

The world’s four largest banks now all reside in one nation: China…

Lines of code are considered more trustworthy than central banks…

In this broad-ranging, deeply researched review of modern banking and financial systems, analysts David Buckham, Robyn Wilkinson and Christiaan Straeuli unpick in parallel the ongoing erosion of trust in capitalist free markets and Western democratic institutions, and the directly related, unprecedented growth of the Chinese banking system. The former is a decades-long tale of intermittent market manipulation, inadequately regulated hubris and outright criminality, which produced the Global Financial Crisis, the most devastating financial meltdown since the Great Depression. The latter, which in various ways mirrors the conditions that led to the Crisis, may well prove worse.

In detailing the unheeded lessons of financial history, the authors reveal how the inconsistently managed tension between free markets and government regulation has led us from depression and regulation to deregulation and crisis. And with incursions into string theory, the mathematics of cryptocurrency and the intricacies of money supply, we discover what happens when an authoritarian command economy fills the moral and ideological vacuum left behind.

In a post-Covid world – in which we are witnessing booming stock markets entirely disconnected from real-world economic hardship, and communist billionaires propagating just as global inequality skyrockets – public trust in the international banking system has never been lower. This is an unprecedented survey of a fraught and complex landscape that has never been more urgent.

The ongoing war in Ukraine, between freedom and totalitarianism, has been brewing since the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989: the great victory of liberal democracy over communism. In recent decades, authoritarian regimes have proliferated or become emboldened – from Myanmar and North Korea to Venezuela, Saudi Arabia and, of course, China. At the same time, we have seen wildly overpriced stock markets, the emergence of decentralised finance and its associated cryptocurrencies, and the idolization of inordinately expensive things, from watches and customised trainers to rare whiskies and non-fungible tokens (NFTs). The decoupling of capitalism from democracy, which gathered pace in the 1990s, has fostered an economic system powered by greed alone, able to prosper in brutal dictatorships, unchecked even by the financial crisis of 2007/8. Rampant inequality, fuelled by radically increased money supply, has been the result, with a tiny fraction of the world’s population owning more than the rest put together. This inequality has incited social unrest and contributed to the undermining of faith in the institutions of the democratic state. The citizens of Western democracies have been left to the mercy of unfettered capitalism, becoming data subjects, endlessly surveilled, marshalled and polarised. Today’s extreme capitalism, promoted by Milton Friedman and others, is exemplified by its modern monopolists – Bill Gates, Jeff Bezos, Mark Zuckerberg and Elon Musk, whose fortunes have been built on often immoral, if not illegal actions, and whose headline-grabbing antics appear to be motivated more by ego than any genuine desire to do good for humanity. In the 1990s, an understanding of social justice and an appreciation of democracy still survived, but public discourse has grown increasingly polarised and angry. The authors draw a line from the robber barons of the 1990s tech revolution to Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, citing the marginalisation of democratic principles which has enabled the rise of authoritarian populists such as Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping, Jair Bolsonaro and, of course, Donald Trump and Boris Johnson. An unanticipated fightback in Ukraine, with support from the EU and the West, has the potential to reclaim the lost spirit of freedom inherent in liberal democracy, but will it be enough?